Global economic recovery, growth prospects, monetary easing effect is limited

Global economic recovery, growth prospects, monetary easing effect is limited

Global economic recovery, growth prospects, monetary easing effect is limited

Recent weeks, the sudden change of the world economic situation not only bogged down in the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area to return to recession, the United States, China and other major economies, there have been signs of growth slowed down significantly. In this context, the global central banks launched a new round of interest rate cuts and relaxation of monetary policy, the climax. However, the gold strategists and economists believe that uncertainty clouds are gathering over the central banks monetary easing is limited, the next important task of promoting growth to fall on the shoulders of Governments.air check valve.

⊙ newspaper reporter the Zhuzhou Liang

market sentiment improved but tension still

after the election and the EU by the end of June summit in Greece, the financial market sentiment continued to improve. But the gold that the debt crisis in Europe and the United States “fiscal cliff,” the haze still shrouded in the global economy. This haze to suppress the enthusiasm of enterprise investment and consumer spending, the result is a decrease in expenditure, revenue declined, the formation of “self-reinforcing” fragile growth prospects.

Recent data issued from the major economies, all show that the global growth momentum in the continued loss, it led to China, Brazil, South Korea from the United Kingdom, the euro area central banks cut rates or quantitative easing measures in order to boost the economy, the market expectations for the Fed to increase easing the intensity increasing. The

Overall market sentiment gradually improve, but the local is still tight. Gold economists point out that the agreement reached by the Greek election results and the EU summit, has greatly improved investor sentiment, the stock market and credit market uncertainty began to significantly slow down in early June. From stock index option prices,home foundry. implied volatility, and investment grade corporate CDS indicators, there was a substantial decline. In addition, the Irish government to return to the bond market and issue 500 million euros of three short-term government bonds, the interest rate of 1.8%.

However, gold also noted the past two weeks, investors after the initial excitement, it seems more and more to the EU summit lack of detail frustrated with the media coverage of Finland and the Netherlands are likely to oppose European stability mechanism (ESM) in the secondary market to buy bonds, the bond market in Europe and therefore to reproduce the tension. The 10-year bond yields in Spain and Italy, respectively, to return to a high of 7% and 6%.

King said the euro zone as soon as possible to clarify the details of the Spanish bank recapitalization and the establishment of the Bank Alliance, if you can not meet market expectations, financial markets may usher in another round of volatility. Smaller in the possibility of the United States, before the election the two parties to reach a comprehensive compromise, the fiscal cliff, “the downward pressure of the U.S. economic recovery will continue.

US-European economic outlook

from the fundamental perspective, recent data show that the euro area and the two economies are varying degrees of growth cooling, the outlook is not optimistic.

In the euro area, the euro zone manufacturing PMI in June and last month was flat, but still below the 50 Wing bad dividing line, showing the economy is in contraction interval. More critical, there are signs that the tension of the euro area has begun to affect the euro area core – Germany. In May, Germanys industrial machinery industry new orders fell 6 percent, Germany in June PMI fell to a low of three years. At the same time, the euro area labor market continues to deteriorate, the unemployment rate in May rose to a record high 11.1 percent, Germanys unemployment rate was 5.6%, rose to 24.6% in Spain, Greece, the unemployment rate rose to 22.5 percent in April to record high.